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Methodology

How the math gets built.

10-minute read

Every Walkaway Report pulls from 11 data points. Here’s exactly what they are, where they come from, and what they don’t account for.

If you ran the report and your number doesn’t match what you expected, the answer is almost always in one of the assumptions below. Hit reply on any email I’ve sent you — I read every one — and I’ll re-run with sharper inputs.

Home value inputs (4)

1. Median sale price in your zip code over the last 90 days.

Pulled from county assessor records and MLS aggregates. Refreshed weekly. Antelope Valley deals close at a different rhythm than coastal LA, so the 90-day window catches local seasonality without lagging on real movement.

2. Square footage + bed count adjustment.

We pull your home’s current assessor record (no manual data from you) and weight the median sale price by your square footage and bed count relative to your zip’s median. A 4-bed 2,400-sqft house in a zip where the median is 3-bed 1,800-sqft prices higher than median; a 2-bed 1,200-sqft house prices lower. The adjustment is multiplicative, not additive — small differences compound.

3. Days-on-market trend (60-day window).

Whether homes in your zip are selling faster or slower over the last 60 days. Rising days-on-market means buyers are gaining negotiation power; falling means sellers are. The trend feeds the concession bracket below — when buyers gain power, they ask for more concessions.

4. School zone score adjustment for your specific catchment area.

Public school scores from the California Department of Education. Material in zips with split-catchment boundaries — two houses on the same street can be in different elementary catchments and price meaningfully differently. Refreshed annually after CDE releases test data.

Cost-of-sale inputs (4)

5. Estimated commission.

We use a 5.5% total commission as the default — split as 2.75% buyer-side / 2.75% seller-side, current Antelope Valley convention. Commissions are negotiable; this is the typical bracket, not a quote. Your actual commission will be in the listing agreement before you sign anything.

6. Estimated escrow + title costs.

Pulled from Los Angeles County escrow averages. Approximately $4,500 for a typical AV transaction — title insurance, recording fees, escrow service. This number doesn’t move much; it’s the steadiest line in the calculation.

7. Estimated buyer concession bracket.

This is the single biggest variable in the entire walkaway. We pull the last 30 closed deals in your zip and look at how much the seller credited back to the buyer at closing — for repairs, closing costs, rate buy-downs, anything. Currently in the AV: $5,000–$12,000 typical. Two years ago this was closer to $0–$3,000. It moves with the buyer-power trend (data point 3 above).

8. Estimated prep work bracket.

Paint, landscaping, minor repair, deferred-maintenance catch-up. Brackets out at $3,000–$7,000 typical for homes 5–15 years old. This isn’t a quote — it’s a planning bracket. Your actual prep cost depends entirely on your home’s current condition and how aggressively the listing strategy positions it.

Your inputs from the quiz (3)

9. Your mortgage balance range (from Q4).

We use the midpoint of the range you selected. If you selected “$300,000–$400,000,” we use $350,000 in the calculation. Your actual payoff statement will be sharper — request it from your loan servicer or text it to me and I’ll re-run.

10. Your stated timeline (from Q5).

Doesn’t change the walkaway dollar number. Affects the cost-of-waiting math on your result page (Section 4 of the result) — longer timeline means more property tax + insurance creep accrued.

11. Your stated motivation.

Affects nothing in the dollar calculation. Used for personalization in the report and follow-up, not for the math.

What we don't use

We do not use any of the following to calculate your walkaway:

  • Your name (other than first name for personalization)
  • Your specific income or income range
  • Your credit score
  • Your social security number (we don’t ask for it; we couldn’t use it if you gave it)
  • Your exact mortgage balance (only the range you selected)
  • Your filing status, except for capital gains exclusion ceiling

The math doesn’t need any of those.

What the math doesn't account for

Five things explicitly:

  • Transfer tax. Varies by city; small in the AV but nonzero.
  • HOA transfer fees. If your community has an HOA, expect $300–$800 in transfer/document fees not included above.
  • Unique property conditions. Foundation issues, septic, zoning anomalies, view easements — these can move the value materially in either direction.
  • Off-market negotiation. Cash buyers, family-to-family deals, and off-market listings price differently than MLS comps.
  • Forced-sale conditions. Pre-foreclosure, divorce-driven, estate-driven sales have different dynamics. The walkaway math assumes a normal-time-on-market sale.

If any of these apply to your situation, the report’s number is a starting point. Hit reply and I’ll run a sharper version.

Want a sharper number?

If you want me to run the math with your actual mortgage statement instead of a balance range, text the balance and rate to +1 (833) 977-2202 and I’ll have a sharper number for you in about 20 minutes. No call needed. No commitment. Your statement doesn’t get stored beyond the calculation.

When the math is wrong

If your number doesn’t match what you expected, the assumption that’s off is almost always one of three:

  1. Your home value. Maybe your zip’s median isn’t representative of your specific street. Send me your address and I’ll run a tighter comp set.
  2. Your concession bracket. If you’ve talked to neighbors who recently sold and concessions ran higher or lower than the bracket above, the difference flows straight to your walkaway. Tell me what you’re hearing locally.
  3. Your capital gains exposure. Filing status, primary residence test, and improvements all move the gains line. If any of those changed since you took the quiz, retake it — your number will update.

I read every email. The answers are usually in the assumptions, and assumptions are easy to adjust.

— Sal Bermudez

California Department of Corrections Lieutenant · Founder, de tu lado casas

DRE# pending — license activation expected April–May 2026

Member, NAHREP

All real estate services conducted under eXp Realty of California, Inc. — DRE #01878277, until license activation.

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